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Abstract. The Ross Ice Shelf, West Antarctica, experienced an extensive melt event in January 2016. We examine the representation of this event by the HIRHAM5 and MetUM high-resolution regional atmospheric models, as well as a sophisticated offline-coupled firn model forced with their outputs. The model results are compared with satellite-based estimates of melt days. The firn model estimates of the number of melt days are in good agreement with the observations over the eastern and central sectors of the ice shelf, while the HIRHAM5 and MetUM estimates based on their own surface schemes are considerably underestimated, possibly due to deficiencies in these schemes and an absence of spin-up. However, the firn model simulates sustained melting over the western sector of the ice shelf, in disagreement with the observations that show this region as being a melt-free area. This is attributed to deficiencies in the HIRHAM5 and MetUM output and particularly a likely overestimation of night-time net surface radiative flux. This occurs in response to an increase in night-time downwelling longwave flux from around 180–200 to 280 W m−2 over the course of a few days, leading to an excessive amount of energy at the surface available for melt. Satellite-based observations show that this change coincides with a transition from clear-sky to cloudy conditions, with clouds containing both liquid water and ice water. The models capture the initial clear-sky conditions but seemingly struggle to correctly represent cloud properties associated with the cloudy conditions, which we suggest is responsible for the radiative flux errors. 

Abstract. The Ross Ice Shelf, West Antarctica, experienced an extensive melt event in January 2016. We examine the representation of this event by the HIRHAM5 and MetUM high-resolution regional atmospheric models, as well as a sophisticated offline coupled firn model forced with their outputs. The model results are compared with satellite-based estimates of melt days. The firn model estimates of the number of melt days are in good agreement with the observations over the eastern and central sectors of the ice shelf, while the HIRHAM5 and MetUM estimates based on their own surface schemes are considerably underestimated, possibly due to deficiencies in these schemes and an absence of spin-up. However, the firn model simulates sustained melting over the western sector of the ice shelf, in disagreement with the observations that show this region as being melt-free. This is attributed to deficiencies in the HIRHAM5 and MetUM output, and particularly a likely overestimation of nighttime net surface radiative flux. This occurs in response to an increase in nighttime downwelling longwave flux from around 180–200 W m-2 to 280 W m-2 over the course of a few days, leading to an excessive amount of energy at the surface available for melt. Satellite-based observations show that this change coincides with a transition from clear-sky conditions to clouds containing both liquid-water and ice-water. The models capture the initial clear-sky conditions but seemingly struggle to correctly represent the ice-to-liquid mass partitioning associated with the cloudy conditions, which we suggest is responsible for the radiative flux errors. 

Abstract. This study quantifies differences among four widely usedatmospheric reanalysis datasets (ERA5, JRA-55, MERRA-2, and CFSR) in theirrepresentation of the dynamical changes induced by springtime polarstratospheric ozone depletion in the Southern Hemisphere from 1980 to 2001.The intercomparison is undertaken as part of the SPARC(Stratosphere–troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate) ReanalysisIntercomparison Project (S-RIP). The reanalyses are generally in goodagreement in their representation of the strengthening of the lowerstratospheric polar vortex during the austral spring–summer season,associated with reduced radiative heating due to ozone loss, as well as thedescent of anomalously strong westerly winds into the troposphere duringsummer and the subsequent poleward displacement and intensification of thepolar front jet. Differences in the trends in zonal wind between thereanalyses are generally small compared to the mean trends. The exception isCFSR, which exhibits greater disagreement compared to the other threereanalysis datasets, with stronger westerly winds in the lower stratospherein spring and a larger poleward displacement of the tropospheric westerlyjet in summer. The dynamical changes associated with the ozone hole are examined byinvestigating the momentum budget and then the eddy heat and momentumfluxes in terms of planetary- and synoptic-scale Rossby wave contributions.The dynamical changes are consistently represented across the reanalysesand support our dynamical understanding of the response of the coupledstratosphere–troposphere system to the ozone hole. Although our resultssuggest a high degree of consistency across the four reanalysis datasets inthe representation of these dynamical changes, there are larger differencesin the wave forcing, residual circulation, and eddy propagation changes compared to the zonal wind trends. In particular, there is a noticeabledisparity in these trends in CFSR compared to the other three reanalyses,while the best agreement is found between ERA5 and JRA-55. Greateruncertainty in the components of the momentum budget, as opposed to meancirculation, suggests that the zonal wind is better constrained by theassimilation of observations compared to the wave forcing, residualcirculation, and eddy momentum and heat fluxes, which are more dependent onthe model-based forecasts that can differ between reanalyses. Lookingforward, however, these findings give us confidence that reanalysis datasetscan be used to assess changes associated with the ongoing recovery ofstratospheric ozone. 

Abstract. Surface meltwater on ice shelves can exist as slush, it can pond in lakes orcrevasses, or it can flow in surface streams and rivers. The collapse of theLarsen B Ice Shelf in 2002 has been attributed to the sudden drainage of∼3000 surface lakes and has highlighted the potential forsurface water to cause ice-shelf instability. Surface meltwater systems havebeen identified across numerous Antarctic ice shelves, although the extentto which these systems impact ice-shelf instability is poorly constrained.To better understand the role of surface meltwater systems on ice shelves,it is important to track their seasonal development, monitoring thefluctuations in surface water volume and the transfer of water acrossice-shelf surfaces. Here, we use Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 imagery to tracksurface meltwater across the Nivlisen Ice Shelf in the 2016–2017 meltseason. We develop the Fully Automated Supraglacial-Water Tracking algorithmfor Ice Shelves (FASTISh) and use it to identify and track the developmentof 1598 water bodies, which we classify as either circular or linear. Thetotal volume of surface meltwater peaks on 26 January 2017 at 5.5×107 m3. At this time, 63 % of the total volume is held withintwo linear surface meltwater systems, which are up to 27 km long, areorientated along the ice shelf's north–south axis, and follow the surfaceslope. Over the course of the melt season, they appear to migrate away fromthe grounding line, while growing in size and enveloping smaller waterbodies. This suggests there is large-scale lateral water transfer throughthe surface meltwater system and the firn pack towards the ice-shelf frontduring the summer. 

Large stocks of soil organic carbon (SOC) have accumulated in the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region, but their current amounts and future fate remain uncertain. By analyzing dataset combining >2700 soil profiles with environmental variables in a geospatial framework, we generated spatially explicit estimates of permafrost-region SOC stocks, quantified spatial heterogeneity, and identified key environmental predictors. We estimated that 1014 − 175 + 194 Pg C are stored in the top 3 m of permafrost region soils. The greatest uncertainties occurred in circumpolar toe-slope positions and in flat areas of the Tibetan region. We found that soil wetness index and elevation are the dominant topographic controllers and surface air temperature (circumpolar region) and precipitation (Tibetan region) are significant climatic controllers of SOC stocks. Our results provide first high-resolution geospatial assessment of permafrost region SOC stocks and their relationships with environmental factors, which are crucial for modeling the response of permafrost affected soils to changing climate. 

Abstract We calculate a regional surface “melt potential” index (MPI) over Antarctic ice shelves that describes the frequency (MPI-freq; %) and intensity (MPI-int; K) of daily maximum summer temperatures exceeding a melt threshold of 273.15 K. This is used to determine which ice shelves are vulnerable to melt-induced hydrofracture and is calculated using near-surface temperature output for each summer from 1979/80 to 2018/19 from two high-resolution regional atmospheric model hindcasts (using the MetUM and HIRHAM5). MPI is highest for Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves (MPI-freq 23%–35%, MPI-int 1.2–2.1 K), lowest (2%–3%, <0 K) for the Ronne–Filchner and Ross ice shelves, and around 10%–24% and 0.6–1.7 K for the other West and East Antarctic ice shelves. Hotspots of MPI are apparent over many ice shelves, and they also show a decreasing trend in MPI-freq. The regional circulation patterns associated with high MPI values over West and East Antarctic ice shelves are remarkably consistent for their respective region but tied to different large-scale climate forcings. The West Antarctic circulation resembles the central Pacific El Niño pattern with a stationary Rossby wave and a strong anticyclone over the high-latitude South Pacific. By contrast, the East Antarctic circulation comprises a zonally symmetric negative Southern Annular Mode pattern with a strong regional anticyclone on the plateau and enhanced coastal easterlies/weakened Southern Ocean westerlies. Values of MPI are 3–4 times larger for a lower temperature/melt threshold of 271.15 K used in a sensitivity test, as melting can occur at temperatures lower than 273.15 K depending on snowpack properties.